Nomura: FOMC Preview

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Note: The FOMC meets next week, and almost every expects a rate hike at the December meeting.

A few excerpts from a research note from Nomura:

In line with market expectations, we expect the FOMC will raise the federal funds rate target to 0.50-0.75% at the conclusion of the 13-14 December meeting. We think that the incoming data since the last meeting has been sufficiently positive for the Committee to conclude that the case for rate hike has been finally met.

On the policy statement, we expect the paragraph on current economic conditions to point to continued growth. Additionally, we expect the Committee to highlight two notable developments – a sharp drop in the unemployment rate and a pickup in market-based measures of inflation compensation – in the statement. On the economic outlook, we expect no substantive changes, although the Committee may acknowledge a shift in the balance of risks to the positive side given the potential fiscal stimulus that will likely be realized under a Republican-led Congress and a Trump White House.

In addition, we will receive a new set of forecasts from the FOMC participants. …

Our base scenario is that FOMC participants will not change their outlook for 2017 and beyond as we do not think the Committee will incorporate the possibility of fiscal expansion. It’s unclear when and how FOMC participants will take into account potential changes in fiscal policy. In that sense, there is some risk that some participants could raise real GDP projections for 2017 and 2018 in anticipation of fiscal expansion. And, given the recent decline in the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate forecast for 2017 could be also revised lower.

Last, Chair Yellen will hold a press conference after the conclusion of the two-day policy meeting. … We will also listen for any clues on how the FOMC may change its outlook in response to the major fiscal stimulus that will likely be enacted next year.

I’ll post more previews, but a rate hike next week seems almost certain.


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Temple Grandin

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(This article was originally published at Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, and syndicated at StatsBlogs.)

She also belongs in the “objects of class Pauline Kael” category. Most autistic people are male, but Temple Grandin is the most famous and accomplished autistic person ever.

The post Temple Grandin appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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The Value of R's Open Source Ecosystem

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I was thrilled to be invited to speak at the Monktoberfest conference, held this past October in Portland, Maine. Not only have I been a great fan of the analysis from the Redmonk team for many years, I'd heard that it was one of the most interesting and diverse tech conferences around. (Also, beer.) And indeed, it turned out to be all of those things, and one of the most memorable and interesting conferences I've ever been to. You can find many of the talks on Redmonk's Youtube channel. There were so many great talks it's hard to single any out, but if I were to recommend three I'd go for: The Power of #FamilyOps for Women in Tech (Mandey Whaley); Oral Tradition in Software Engineering (Bryan Cantrill); and Why Do I Care About Microservices? (Brendan Burns).

My talk was about how the value of open source software lies not only in the software itself, but also in the community that forms around it. In the talk I recounted the rise of R from a niche academic tool for data scientist to become the lingua franca of data science. I also tols some of the stories from the things we did at Revolution Analytics (and later, at Microsoft) to help promote and grow R's ecosystem. You can find the slides here, and the talk itself is embedded below.

 


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Raspberry Pi 3 Model B Bare Essentials Kit – Performance Heatsinks with 2.5A Power Supply

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The Raspberry Pi 3 Model B is the latest Raspberry Pi Foundation single board computer with a quad core 64 bit ARMv8 CPU operating at 1.2GHz. It is almost twice as fast as the outgoing Raspberry Pi 2 Model B in many benchmarks.

With the increased performance comes higher power consumption and heat which is why we have paired it with our exclusive heatsink set. This kit will reduce hot spot temperatures by up to 20C and increase the stability of the Raspberry Pi 3 under full CPU load.

The new board also has built-in support for wireless technologies like 2.4GHz 802.11N WiFi and Bluetooth 4.1 Low Energy. You no longer need to take up two USB ports and USB bandwidth so the performance as a NAS device increases. This is a welcomed addition that is bound to save many users the hassle of getting wireless setup.

Whats included:

  • – Raspberry Pi 3 Model B Single Board Computer
  • – LoveRPi 2.5A MicroUSB Power Adapter
  • – LoveRPi 10 mm CPU Heatsink with 3M Double-Sided Thermal Adhesive
  • – LoveRPi 5 mm LAN Heatsink with 3M Double-Sided Thermal Adhesive
  • – Element14 Quick Start Guide – Element14 Retail Box
  • – LoveRPi Troubleshoot Sheet

The Raspberry Pi 3 Model B will consume around 1A of current by itself. Secondary accessories can drive up current consumption to 2.5A.

Raspberry Pi is a registered trademark of the Raspberry Pi Foundation. Element 14 is a registered trademark of Premier Farnell. LoveRPi does not represent Raspberry Pi Foundation, Premier Farnell, or 3M.

RASPBERRY PI 3 MODEL B: Single Board Computer with 1.2GHz Quad Core ARM Cortex-A53, 1GB LPDDR2 RAM, Broadcom VideoCore IV GPU, 4 Full Size USB Ports (Shared Bandwidth), 10/100 Mb Ethernet Port, HDMI 1.3 Port, 3.5mm AV Port (Composite Video Out + Stereo Out), MicroSDHC Slot, MIPI CSI Connector for Cameras, MIPI DSI Connector for Displays, 40 Pin GPIO Header, MicroUSB Power Connector
TWICE AS FAST AS PI 2: Blazing Fast Quad-Core 64-bit CPU and Faster GPU opens a new realm of possibilities and applications limited only by your creativity
PREVENT THROTTLING WITH HEATSINKS: Tailored Performance Heatsink Set with 10mm Straight Fin High Profile CPU Heatsink and 5mm LAN Heatsink with 3M Thermal Adhesive Tape
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ADDITIONAL PARTS REQUIRED: Properly Flashed MicroSD Card required for operation! (8GB B017JKJEAU, 16GB B01J56UIYM, 32GB B01FRLCE32, 64GB B01J56Z8CY, 128GB B01FRLKBQY)

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R Consortium Projects Update

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(This article was first published on Revolutions, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers)

The R Consortium has already funded 8 projects (and 3 more just in July) proposed by the R community, and the call for proposals for yet more projects is now open. If you have an idea for a projects that would advance R or the R Community, get your submission in by February 10, 2017.

Meanwhile, the already-funded projects are making good progress. R-hub, the build service for R packages, has been running a successful public beta for a couple of months now. The SatRDays mini-conferences project has already had one very successful sold-out meeting in Budapest (follow that link for recordings of the talks), with another scheduled in Cape Town on February 18, 2017. R-ladies has rapidly expanded to 25 chapters around the world. And two other projects have recently reached interim milestones.

RConsortiumlogo

RL10N, the project to translate R into other spoken languages, has achieved its first milestone with the release of the poio package on CRAN. This package allows translators to create simple files with translations of messages, warnings, and errors. Next, the project plans to add tools for managing and updating translations, and finding translators to create the files in various languages.

The Improving Database Intefaces project has also made good progress, releasing the RSQLite v1.1 package. This provides a standardized interface to the SQLite database according to the DBI specification (which continues to evolve). This same interface will be extended to other databases, and make withing with different databases in R more consistent.

The R Consortium is also now sponsoring R user groups around the world, so if you are a member of an established R user group or would like to set one up, follow that link to apply for sponsorship. You can also find a list of local R user groups here on the blog.

Thanks as always to the members of the R Consortium (Microsoft, RStudio and all the others) for providing the funding to support these worthwhile projects!

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Four short links: 9 December 2016

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Automating the Middle Class, Voiced Penetration, Drone Fish, and On Assumptions

  1. What Robots Are Doing to the Middle Class (Common Dreams) — Paul Buchheit lays it out: the bifurcation of jobs, the reinforcement of privilege, and…A final relevant consideration was hinted at by The Economist, in talking about technological revolutions of the past: “It took several decades before economic growth was reflected in significant wage gains for workers—a delay known as Engels’ pause.” (via Cory Doctorow)
  2. Voice Control Security Holes“His neighbor, who was coming by to borrow some flour, was able to let himself in by shouting, ‘Hey Siri, unlock the front door.'”
  3. Using a Robotic Dummy Fish to Study Social BehavioursUltimately, the experiments showed that the electric signal played a crucial role as a key stimulus in inducing “following behavior,” while there was no significant effect of motion pattern on attractiveness of the dummy. I feel vindicated in my decision to eschew dance classes in favour of an EMP generator.
  4. On Assumptions (Adrian Colyer) — The safety questions are the ones we’re trained to ask (although we often forget). But it’s the opportunity questions that can unlock some really interesting lines of inquiry and discovery.

Continue reading Four short links: 9 December 2016.




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